Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.245503 2.381143 2.524499 2.687944 2.869940 3.067315 3.298848
2025-03-23 2.062381 2.251059 2.460660 2.713127 3.012249 3.359650 3.800275
2025-03-30 1.910676 2.124685 2.370328 2.677476 3.057729 3.522355 4.148765
2025-04-06 1.794742 2.023802 2.293322 2.640268 3.085187 3.652211 4.458209
2025-04-13 1.687473 1.922851 2.205053 2.576571 3.066446 3.712514 4.672777
2025-04-20 1.637388 1.886473 2.191130 2.602076 3.160882 3.927101 5.127426
2025-04-27 1.603097 1.866265 2.194312 2.647345 3.282441 4.188486 5.689234
2025-05-04 1.571436 1.846631 2.195637 2.688210 3.398907 4.452630 6.299371
2025-05-11 1.519519 1.797743 2.155042 2.667470 3.422970 4.576829 6.692342
2025-05-18 1.473892 1.754614 2.119309 2.650227 3.449174 4.704887 7.113257
2025-05-25 1.430329 1.712096 2.081916 2.627556 3.464071 4.814231 7.517819
2025-06-01 1.389239 1.671065 2.044382 2.601914 3.471382 4.910047 7.913170
2025-06-08 1.356538 1.640653 2.020898 2.596630 3.512222 5.071825 8.494965
2025-06-15 1.336746 1.626900 2.019884 2.624545 3.608761 5.345481 9.407545
2025-06-22 1.299198 1.587290 1.980350 2.591191 3.600115 5.421242 9.865238
2025-06-29 1.263491 1.548996 1.941103 2.555996 3.585303 5.482786 10.305052
2025-07-06 1.222349 1.501893 1.887454 2.495647 3.522713 5.442725 10.458911
2025-07-13 1.208287 1.492177 1.887579 2.519820 3.609579 5.715500 11.603345
2025-07-20 1.200289 1.490577 1.899267 2.562701 3.733003 6.083240 13.222534
2025-07-27 1.191461 1.487379 1.908251 2.601389 3.851858 6.461244 15.116324
2025-08-03 1.167682 1.461954 1.882874 2.581757 3.858877 6.584206 16.125659
2025-08-10 1.145917 1.438832 1.860172 2.565430 3.870883 6.720904 17.286824
2025-08-17 1.123867 1.414713 1.835152 2.543959 3.871145 6.829151 18.404526